Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- General David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East and Central Asia, struck a note of caution on the war in Afghanistan, saying making headway against the insurgency probably will take longer than in Iraq.
“Achieving progress in Afghanistan will be hard and progress there likely will be slower in developing than was the progress in Iraq,” Petraeus told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today. “Nonetheless, as with Iraq, in Afghanistan hard is not hopeless.”
Violence will increase as additional troops from the U.S.- led 43-nation alliance enable a stepped-up offensive against Taliban insurgents, he said. He predicted “greater turmoil” within the Afghan government as it moves to combat corruption with international assistance.
Petraeus testified along with Karl Eikenberry, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, and Deputy Secretary of State Jacob Lew in the second of three days of hearings this week on President Barack Obama’s revised strategy in Afghanistan.
Petraeus’s caution contrasts with the optimism that Army General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, voiced repeatedly yesterday before two other congressional committees. With the caveat that the battle won’t be easy, McChrystal said, “I believe we will absolutely be successful.”
$40 Billion
Obama needs Congress to approve funds to carry out his policy, which is aimed at reversing Taliban gains in Afghanistan, training Afghan forces and preparing the country’s government to take more control. The buildup may cost as much as $40 billion next year, according to Representative John Murtha, who heads the House spending panel which appropriates money for defense.
Republicans question whether the 30,000 extra U.S. troops approved by Obama are sufficient and the timeline too hurried. Democrats say the U.S. could become mired in a war already surpassing eight years.
Petraeus said he fully supports the policy and cautioned lawmakers to “withhold judgment” on whether it is successful until December 2010, when the strategy and will be assessed with an eye to beginning a drawdown of U.S. forces in July 2011.
Skepticism Voiced
The top Democrat and Republican on the committee expressed concern that, while resources flow to finance the fight in Afghanistan, the leadership of the insurgency will find haven across the border in Pakistan.
“I am convinced that what happens in Pakistan, particularly near the Afghan border, will do more to determine the outcome in Afghanistan than any increase in troops or shift in strategy,” said panel Chairman John Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat.
Senator Richard Lugar, an Indiana Republican, said the “most salient question” is whether gains in Afghanistan “will mean much if Taliban and al-Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan remain or if instability within Pakistan intensifies.”
Petraeus said Pakistan has taken “an important step forward” in waging military campaigns against extremists on its territory. The measures “facilitate our efforts to degrade the extremist groups in the border region and to defeat al-Qaeda,” he told the committee.
Still, “these operations have not directly engaged the sanctuaries of the Afghan Taliban groups in Pakistan,” Petraeus said. Pakistan also hasn’t confronted all of the elements of an extremist syndicate that includes the Pakistani Taliban, the Lashkar-e-Taiba group that carried out the November 2008 attack on Mumbai, India, and the militant Haqqani network, he said.
‘Beacon and Symbol’
“Although most Taliban fighters confronting our forces are local Afghans motivated by local circumstances, the Afghan Taliban leadership is organized, is ideologically motivated and has become a beacon and symbol for other dangerous extremist elements,” Petraeus told the panel.
Eikenberry also took a more cautious note yesterday and today than McChrystal on the prospects for success in Afghanistan, saying the U.S. is concentrating on what is “essential and attainable.”
“Afghanistan represents a daunting challenge,” Eikenberry told the committee. “Success is not guaranteed but it is possible.”
While the added troops will improve stability and make room to improve governance and expand the nation’s security forces, the U.S. faces the risk that the Afghan government will “struggle” to take over “on a timely basis.”
He also cited Pakistan as an important factor.
“The effort we’re undertaking in Afghanistan is likely to fall short of our strategic goals, unless there is more progress in eliminating sanctuaries used by the Afghan Taliban and their associates inside of Pakistan,” Eikenberry said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net
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